Possible risk factors for thyroid cancer (on the example of Altai Territory residents)

Purpose of the study. To study the prognostic significance of various exogenous and endogenous risk factors for thyroid cancer (TC).

Materials and methods. The influence of various exogenous and endogenous factors, as well as anamnestic data, as indirect predictors of the development of TC, was studied in 1463 patients: in the main group, which included 505 patients with a verified diagnosis of TC and a control group formed by a continuous method, 958 people were free from MNs. Statistical data processing was performed using Orange Data Mining software (3–3.37.0) and RStudio (version 4.3.1). The character of the distribution of quantitative variables was assessed using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Shapiro–Wilk criteria. When using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov criterion, the hypothesis of the normality of the distribution is rejected at p < 0.20, when using the Shapiro–Wilk criterion – at p < 0.05.

Results. A comparative analysis showed a statistically significant association of a number of factors with the development of TC: female sex and age over 51 years, an overwhelming hereditary history, occupational hazards, mental work, surgery and chronic thyroid diseases, impaired homeostasis, and others, a total of 28 factors (p < 0.001). Factors preventing the development of TC were identified: male gender and age 45 years and younger, physical labor, melancholic temperament, sleep duration of more than 7 hours (p < 0.001). Factors such as smoking, alcohol intake, and iodized salt did not have a statistically significant effect when comparing the studied groups in the Altai Territory.

Conclusion. The conducted research allowed us to identify significant factors contributing to and hindering the development of TC. It has been established that none of the risk factors has an independent decisive significance, and therefore it is necessary to calculate the total risk according to the original formula, which will determine the personalized risk of developing TC and targeted prevention measures.

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