EFFECT OF NATIONAL PROGRAMS IN ONCOLOGY ON SURVIVAL OF PATIENTS WITH RECTAL CANCER: A POPULATION-BASED ANALYSIS

Objective. Assessment of the impact of National Program «Health» on a rectal cancer (RC) tumor-specific survival in the Arkhangelsk region (AR), Russia over the period 2000–2017 by the data of Arkhangelsk Regional Cancer Registry (ARCR)

Materials and methods. Anonymized data on all cases of RC (C19.0–C21.0) in the AR in 2000–2017 were extracted from the database of the ARCR. Over the study period, 4173 cases of the RC were selected. To assess the impact of the National Health Project in 2006 and All-national Dispensarization in 2013, the three time periods were chosen — 2000–2006, 2007–2012 and 2013–2017. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) was calculated. Separate influence of baseline factors on differences in CSS between periods was performed using Cox regression with consecutive input.

Results. One- and five year CSS were 62,6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 60,03–65,05%%) and 27,8% (95% CI 25,4–30,2%) in 2000–2006, 65,1% (95% CI 62,5–67,5%) and 32% (95% CI 29,5–34,5%) in 2007–2012, 67,7% (95% CI 65,2–70,1%) and 37,4% (95% CI 33,7–41,1%) in 2013–2017, respectively.

In univariate analysis the risk of death in the latest time periods was significantly lower: HR 0.86 (95% CI 0.79–0.95), p < 0.05 and 0.74 (95% CI 0.67–0.82), p<0.0001 for 2007–2012 and 2013–2017, respectively, comparing to 2000–2006. In a multivariate model only correction for treatment type has led to change of the coefficients between time periods: HR 0.94 (95% CI 0.86–1.03) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.75–0.93) for 2007–2012 and 2013–2017, respectively. The CSS was also in­dependently influenced by stage, age at diagnosis, place of residence and type of treatment.

Conclusion. Population-based five-year CSS of patients with RC increased by 8% during the analyzed period. Better CSS in the latest time period is associated rather with improvement of treatment than earlier detection of RC.

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